http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2004/11/29/getting-worried/ EUlogical reflections Wed, 09 Jul 2008 02:01:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2004/11/29/getting-worried/#comment-27 eulogist Tue, 30 Nov 2004 00:16:38 +0000 http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2004/11/29/getting-worried/#comment-27 [updated] Actually, I think new elections, and a subsequent Yushchenko win, could make secession of the eastern part more likely. Secession is not the prefered choice for either government, as the east with its mines and heavy industry is (still) the economic engine of the country. But whereas any government would resist secession, it is only likely to occur in case of a Yushchenko win. So especially now local authorities have said they might secede, the Yanukovichites can use it as a credible threat to bully voters into a Yanukovich vote. Remember the difference between the candidates was not that big, even if you account for the fraud... However, I do think new elections is the best way out of the current deadlock. Any other solution (keeping Yanukovich in power, appointing Yushchenko president, even recounting the votes) seems riskier to me. [updated] Actually, I think new elections, and a subsequent Yushchenko win, could make secession of the eastern part more likely. Secession is not the prefered choice for either government, as the east with its mines and heavy industry is (still) the economic engine of the country. But whereas any government would resist secession, it is only likely to occur in case of a Yushchenko win. So especially now local authorities have said they might secede, the Yanukovichites can use it as a credible threat to bully voters into a Yanukovich vote. Remember the difference between the candidates was not that big, even if you account for the fraud… However, I do think new elections is the best way out of the current deadlock. Any other solution (keeping Yanukovich in power, appointing Yushchenko president, even recounting the votes) seems riskier to me.

]]> http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2004/11/29/getting-worried/#comment-26 Tipping point Mon, 29 Nov 2004 22:48:38 +0000 http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2004/11/29/getting-worried/#comment-26 I think tonight's Kuchma declaration (that a new election should solve the crisis) shows the opposition has pushed the current government past the tipping point... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4053067.stm It appears they feel their authority is crumbling, and apparently they do prefer an elegant withdrawal (new elections) above the political (secession) or economical ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4052971.stm ) collapse of the country... I think tonight’s Kuchma declaration (that a new election should solve the crisis) shows the opposition has pushed the current government past the tipping point…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4053067.stm
It appears they feel their authority is crumbling, and apparently they do prefer an elegant withdrawal (new elections) above the political (secession) or economical ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4052971.stm ) collapse of the country…

]]>