Comments on: Lies, statistics and preconceptions http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2006/10/10/lies-statistics-and-prejudices/ EUlogical reflections Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:57:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Dirk Gonthier http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2006/10/10/lies-statistics-and-prejudices/comment-page-1/#comment-12937 Dirk Gonthier Wed, 25 Oct 2006 00:31:37 +0000 http://www.european-democracy.org/archives/2006/10/10/lies-statistics-and-prejudices/#comment-12937 It is true, the results of the local elections in Flanders gave mixed signals. But to compare the local election with the 2004 regional election, is a bridge too far. First of all, the VB allways has its worse scores in local elections, in contradiction to the CD&V, that allways has its best election results in local elections. I remember clearly the euphoric articels that appeared in our press after 2000 (the previous local elections), because the VB was stopped for the first time in elections. Indeed, also in 2000 the VB had a score that was below the previous (regional or federal) elections. Now, they write just the same articles, notwithstanding the fact that the VB has grown constantly through the years. Either way, these results confirm the trend that, to be able to have a Flemish majority behind it, the next Belgian government will exist (from Flemish side) out of the three traditionel parties, leaving the VB as the only opposition party in Flanders, aswell on a Flemish level as on Belgian level. Since the Flemish politicians show daily their complete incompetance in negotiations with the Walloons to form a policy that has the support of the majority of the Flemings behind it, the common support for our traditional parties can only shrink. There are in politics very few laws, except the one that says: 'Governing is choosing; choosing in losing'. And, indeed, I know of no political party or coalition that was ever blessed with eternal power in a democracy. Furthermore, politics are a fluent matter. The VLD has expelled J.M. Dedecker, a man who had 40% of the votes on the latest VLD-chairman election, because he condemned the left politics of the Belgian prime-minister Verhofstadt (VLD). If J.M. Dedecker succeeds in building an alternative liberal party in Flanders, together with Coveliers, the third most popular politician in Antwerp where he and his party (VLOTT) formed a cartel with the VB, they can really hurt the VLD the coming years. Just because the left politics of Verhofstadt, the VLD has known nothing but election-defeats, since they got into power (1999). This new party is a threat for the Vlaams Belang, because it holds now already most dark-blue votes, but it is also a chance for the VB, because aswell Coveliers as Dedecker have repeatedly said in the past that they would prefer forming a coalition with the VB. Liberal voters, who have too much difficulties with the views of the VB on the migrant-issue, can be reached that way. Anyway, it is much too soon to predict what the futur has in store for the VB, for the Flemings and for Belgium. I hope you have a good evening. DG It is true, the results of the local elections in Flanders gave mixed signals. But to compare the local election with the 2004 regional election, is a bridge too far. First of all, the VB allways has its worse scores in local elections, in contradiction to the CD&V, that allways has its best election results in local elections. I remember clearly the euphoric articels that appeared in our press after 2000 (the previous local elections), because the VB was stopped for the first time in elections. Indeed, also in 2000 the VB had a score that was below the previous (regional or federal) elections. Now, they write just the same articles, notwithstanding the fact that the VB has grown constantly through the years.

Either way, these results confirm the trend that, to be able to have a Flemish majority behind it, the next Belgian government will exist (from Flemish side) out of the three traditionel parties, leaving the VB as the only opposition party in Flanders, aswell on a Flemish level as on Belgian level. Since the Flemish politicians show daily their complete incompetance in negotiations with the Walloons to form a policy that has the support of the majority of the Flemings behind it, the common support for our traditional parties can only shrink. There are in politics very few laws, except the one that says: ‘Governing is choosing; choosing in losing’. And, indeed, I know of no political party or coalition that was ever blessed with eternal power in a democracy.

Furthermore, politics are a fluent matter. The VLD has expelled J.M. Dedecker, a man who had 40% of the votes on the latest VLD-chairman election, because he condemned the left politics of the Belgian prime-minister Verhofstadt (VLD). If J.M. Dedecker succeeds in building an alternative liberal party in Flanders, together with Coveliers, the third most popular politician in Antwerp where he and his party (VLOTT) formed a cartel with the VB, they can really hurt the VLD the coming years. Just because the left politics of Verhofstadt, the VLD has known nothing but election-defeats, since they got into power (1999).

This new party is a threat for the Vlaams Belang, because it holds now already most dark-blue votes, but it is also a chance for the VB, because aswell Coveliers as Dedecker have repeatedly said in the past that they would prefer forming a coalition with the VB. Liberal voters, who have too much difficulties with the views of the VB on the migrant-issue, can be reached that way.

Anyway, it is much too soon to predict what the futur has in store for the VB, for the Flemings and for Belgium.

I hope you have a good evening.
DG

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